Patterns of Aging Cultures & Societies: Lessons from the Past

Exploring the Lifespan of Pre-Modern States and Its Implications for Today

The notion of societies rising and falling over time is deeply ingrained in historical narratives. But is there empirical evidence to support this idea? A comprehensive study¹ conducted by archaeologists, historians, and complexity scientists delves into the longevity of pre-modern states, revealing intriguing patterns that offer valuable insights into the dynamics of societal aging and vulnerability.

The Mortality of States

The ebb and flow of civilizations have long fascinated scholars and laypeople alike. To investigate whether societies indeed exhibit a "shelf-life," researchers embarked on an ambitious endeavor, analyzing the lifespan of pre-modern states spanning over 3,000 years. Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, their study challenges conventional wisdom and prompts reflection on contemporary global dynamics.